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You Just Learn to Spot Things

“Can you please, please, please make sure you don’t publish my name?”

Agent Markovia isn’t an ML expert.

“I oversee the ML scientists, reviewing the performance of buy/sell decisions made. I monitor the full life cycle of their strategies.”

“Actually, I haven’t been very impressed. Their performance has been disappointing.”

“I think it’s because machine learning experts are not finance experts.”

The market price theoretically reflects all relevant ‘information’ out there in the real world. It’s thought punters make bets whereas investors use ‘information’, but research indicates investors more in tune with their ‘gut feeling’ beat markets longer on average.

People cope with ‘life’ – a staggering amount of ‘information’ – because we can forget information, not just because we remember it.

Remembering everything, like a computer, would incapacitate us. Emotions, intuitions, these things are basically summarised, biased memories. Kahneman’s ‘System 1’ mostly does us justice, too.

“In finance, you just learn to spot things.”

Ask yourself why nature crafted weaknesses like memory loss into the human condition. Are you certain it’s a weakness?

Intelligent people have been shown to have poor memories.

Are you incorporating forgetfulness into your ML models?

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